《和英対照・社説》

2008.04.22

《English》 A mess of emission cuts The gist of the special announcement on climate change delivered by U.S. President George W. Bush at the White House on Wednesday left us doubting our ears. What could Bush be thinking? In that address, Bush spoke on carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases responsible for global warming. He stated America's new national goal of halting the growth of such emissions by 2025. Yet this statement may also be construed as a declaration that his administration is content to allow emissions to continue growing in the United States over the next 17 years. With Washington's withdrawal from the Kyoto Protocol a key factor at hand, the United States has in the past refused to list any numerical targets for cutting back on its emissions. In view of that, perhaps Bush wants to say that this shift from such a total hands-off approach represents a sea change in policy. For the international community, however, benchmarks are already in place to stop the growth of greenhouse gas emissions. At the 13th session of the Conference of Parties to the U.N. Framework Convention held last December in Bali, debate ensued on the proposed objectives of shifting to reductions in worldwide emissions within 10 to 15 years, and having industrialized nations lower their 2020 emissions by 25 to 40 percent from 1990 levels. These figures are based on trial calculations made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Although not official goals as such, they have emerged as important yardsticks for mounting measures against the threats posed by global warming. The true enigma of Bush's statement, therefore, lies in the fact that he is effectively brushing aside the very undercurrent of this debate. The United States is inarguably the world's most advanced industrialized state. It also accounts for the largest single share of CO2 emissions globally, according to 2005 statistics. But not only has this premier superpower failed to satisfy the benchmark criteria for industrialized countries, its leader now states that the United States may continue to increase emissions for 15 years past the targeted transition to cuts for the world at large. It must also not be forgotten that these global benchmarks stem from discussions held at last year's Group of Eight summit in Germany. At that meeting, an accord was hammered out to devote serious study to reaching the goal of halving global greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Last December's yardsticks represent a milestone in the quest to achieve this roadmap objective. The Bush administration took part in this agreement, and supposedly shifted direction to join U.N.-led deliberations toward formulating a new framework after the expiration of the first term of the Kyoto Protocol in 2012. Bush's latest proclamation thus casts grave doubts on whether the United States was serious in its summit commitments. The greatest pending issue for the post-Kyoto negotiations, meanwhile, is whether China and India, major emitters that have yet to be assigned targets due to their status as developing nations, can be convinced to join the curbing framework. With Washington displaying such attitude at this critical juncture, the odds of convincing them to shoulder their shares of the burden appear slim at best. In many camps, hopes are running high that Washington will change direction with the end of the Bush presidency. It is true that the three remaining candidates in the race for that office all appear to be more earnest about clamping down on global warming than Bush. With the inauguration of the next U.S. president less than nine months away, however, it would be a shame to let time go to waste. Why not, therefore, invite these three candidates to the Hokkaido Lake Toyako G-8 summit to be convened in northern Japan this July? With the battle against global warming high on the agenda at this international gathering, it would be helpful to gain the insights of the next U.S. President on this crucial issue. The Asahi Shimbun, April 18(IHT/Asahi: April 19,2008)

《日本語》 米の脱温暖化策　世界を読めない大統領 　耳を疑う発表内容だった。ブッシュ米大統領は何を考えているのか。 　地球の温暖化を引き起こす二酸化炭素（ＣＯ２）などの温室効果ガスの排出について、「２０２５年までに米国での排出量の伸びを止める」と表明したのだ。裏を返せば、これから１７年間は排出増が続くのもやむをえない、という宣言といえる。 　米国は、先進国に排出削減を義務づける京都議定書から離脱したこともあり、排出総量の削減目標を掲げてこなかった。それを改めたのは大きな変化だといいたいのかもしれない。 　だが、温室効果ガスの排出増をいつストップさせるかについては国際社会の目安がすでにある。 　たとえば、去年暮れの国連気候変動枠組み条約締約国会議では「地球全体の排出量を１０〜１５年以内に減少に転じる」「先進国は２０２０年までに１９９０年より２５〜４０％減らす」という目標案が議論された。「気候変動に関する政府間パネル（ＩＰＣＣ）」の試算にもとづく数値だ。正式な目標とはならなかったが、脱温暖化のための重要な目安となっている。 　耳を疑うのは、大統領がこうした議論の流れを無視しているからだ。 　米国は先進国の中の先進国だ。しかも、ＣＯ２排出量は世界最大を占める（０５年の統計）。その国が先進国向けの目安を満たさないばかりか、世界全体の排出を減少に転じさせようとしている１５年先にも、まだ排出を増やし続けているかもしれないとは。 　忘れてならないのは、これらの目安が、去年のＧ８サミットでの議論にもとづくものであることだ。サミットでは「５０年までに世界全体の排出量を半減する」という目標を「真剣に検討する」と申し合わせた。目安は、その目標達成に必要とされる一里塚だ。 　米政権はその合意の一翼を担い、京都議定書第１期が１２年に終わった後の枠組みづくりでは、国連の下での協議に加わるという路線へかじを切った。それが本気だったのか、と問いたくなる発表である。 　「ポスト京都」の話し合いでは、今は途上国扱いで削減義務がない大排出国の中国やインドなどに、排出抑制の枠組みに加わってもらえるかが最大の懸案となっている。そんなときに米国がこんな消極姿勢を示すのでは、中印などに負担を求めるのは難しい。 　来年初めにブッシュ政権が終われば米国は変わる、という期待は強い。たしかに次の大統領になろうとする３人は、だれも現大統領よりは脱温暖化に熱心のように見える。 　だとしても、それまでの時間を空費してはいられない。 　脱温暖化がテーマとなる洞爺湖サミットには、大統領をめざす候補たちも呼ぼうではないか。 (04月18日)